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Accurate prognosis of early stage melanoma is limited in current care
Cutaneous melanoma is the most deadly form of skin cancer with a rapidly increasing incidence rate. In 2018 there were 287,000 new cases and 60,000 deaths worldwide*. It is a fast-growing cancer, yet with early detection it can be treated successfully with surgical excision. The biggest concern with melanoma is the high risk of recurrence and progression. Most melanoma mortality occurs in patients with a recurrence of the disease that was early-stage (Stage I or Stage II) at the time of diagnosis. Approximately 20-30% of early-stage melanoma patients will develop a recurrence (with higher rates for more advanced disease) a concerningly high risk for patients with emotional, financial and psychological consequences.
Pathologists and dermatologists use a variety of classical indicators to assess increased risk for melanoma patients, for example size/thickness of the tumor and presence of active inflammation (ulceration) in the tumor. While these parameters are useful, they have limitations in accurately predicting which patients will experience recurrence or progression. Many early-stage melanoma patients who eventually develop metastases may not initially present with high-risk classical indicators, leading to underestimation of the risk. Conversely, patients classified as high-risk based on these factors may never experience recurrence, resulting in unnecessary anxiety and overtreatment. Additional prognostic tools are needed to improve the classification of patients as low or high risk so patients can receive the specific treatment or surveillance they need.
*Bray, F., et al., (2018). Global Cancer Statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries. CA Cancer J Clin.
*Ward, C.E., et al., (2018) Metastatic Melanoma in Sentinel Node–Negative Patients: The Ottawa Experience. JCMS.